Have We Reached the Tipping Point?Sentiment Survey 2017 Part 2

January 25, 2018
By Len Bogorad, Managing Director , John Rendleman, Associate
Real Estate Cycle Real Estate Trends Strategic Planning

Key Takeaways

  • 在外围滚球app365信心调查中,近一半受访者认为本轮景气周期目前的扩张阶段可能至少还会持续两年.
  • Most product types exhibited little cycle movement since six months ago, remaining in the stable phases of the real estate cycle.
  • Nearly half of respondents believe that retail is already in downturn, 几乎一半的人预测,多户型住宅将在未来12个月内陷入低迷. However, these predictions have changed very little from the midyear 2017 survey.
  • 外围滚球app365’s outlook for generally positive, though moderating, 截至2018年的运营和投资业绩与大多数受访者一致.

Introduction

As detailed in Part 1 of the Sentiment Survey (read it here), 外围滚球app365最新市场情绪调查的受访者感觉比六个月前更乐观, 大多数人认为市场状况在中短期内会持续稳定. Almost one-half (45%) of respondents believe the next U.S. real estate market downturn will not begin until at least 2020, and current sentiment is more positive than it was a year ago.

Consistent with this overall sentiment, respondents predict that all product types will continue to mature, 在未来12个月内,处于或过渡到房地产周期的后期稳定阶段. Respondents think that retail and apartments are the farthest along in the cycle, and close to one-half believe that retail is already in the downturn phase.

Minimal Cycle Movement over the Past Six Months

与外围滚球app365 2017年中期调查以来的信心轻微改善相一致, 受访者报告说,在过去六个月里,大多数产品类型很少或没有周期移动, 所有的产品要么在房地产周期的后期稳定阶段,要么在缓慢地走向稳定阶段.

Cycle Stage Movement over Past Six Months

In this survey, office and resort/second home product types both moved into the late stable phase, with industrial and age-restricted land uses inching closer to this phase. 酒店、土地、待售住宅和老年人住宅几乎没有周期运动. Sentiment for resort/second home moved the most, though still not very rapidly, as it broke into the late stable phase of the real estate cycle.

Respondents Predict “Late Stable” Phase for All Land Uses in 12 Months

While all land uses progressed slowly in the cycle over the past six months, 受访者认为未来六个月内所有土地用途将会进入后期稳定阶段. Retail and multifamily are expected to be the furthest along, sitting at the top of the cycle and edging closer to the early downturn phase. Just behind retail and multifamily, 预计土地和招待也将在后期稳定阶段进一步发展.

外围滚球app365 Real Estate Cycle Chart

Share of Respondents Predicting Downturn in Next 12 Months Remains Steady

大多数受访者不认为产品类型已经处于周期的低迷阶段. The notable exception is retail, which 47% of respondents believe is currently experiencing downturn conditions. About one-fourth of respondents believe that office (26%), resort/second home (24%), and multifamily (20%) have already reached downturn.

Looking ahead to a year from now, 57%的受访者预计零售业将陷入低迷(上升10个百分点), 45%的人预计多户型住宅将陷入低迷(上升了25个百分点)。. Approximately 15% of respondents expect resort/second home, land, for-sale residential, and hospitality to move from stable to downturn in 2018.

相信当前经济低迷状况并预测未来12个月经济低迷状况的受访者比例

Overall optimism for most product types is in line with where it was six months ago; no land uses saw a significant increase in the share of respondents predicting a downturn over the next 12 months. Four out of the 10 land uses—land, for-sale residential, age-restricted, 预测未来12个月经济低迷的受访者比例有所下降. 有关待售房屋及土地的乐观预测,可能是因为受访者认为待售房屋市场将继续强劲, 尽管新税法会对高税收和高价格市场产生一定的负面影响,但许多受访者预计会出现这种情况, as discussed in Part 1.

Share of Respondents Predicting Downturn Conditions over Next 12-Month Period

The 外围滚球app365 Point of View

多项指标和指标继续表明,对于大多数地区的大多数房地产类型,365滚球APP正处于市场周期的“后期稳定”阶段, which is generally consistent with survey respondents’ sentiments. 365滚球APP仍然没有足够的理由担心房地产市场即将出现或急剧下滑, 尽管在某些房地产类型和地理区域有一些中等程度的危机迹象.

365滚球APP对房地产表现的“基本情况”假设,这些“后期稳定”的情况今年将继续存在, 尽管365滚球APP担心潜在的“左尾”事件会使这一轨迹偏离轨道. On balance, we anticipate moderating, though still generally positive, operating and investment performance for 2018, resulting largely from a strong economy and healthy property market fundamentals.

Overall Market Fundamentals: Economic and demographic drivers are still increasing demand, though construction activity is catching up in most products and market areas. With inventory at or near equilibrium with demand, operating fundamentals are positive but moderating. At this stage in the cycle, significant increases in rents, occupancy, and prices may be more difficult to achieve.

Product Type Prognosis: Rental apartments, for-sale housing, CBD office, and hospitality investments continue to hover around “peak” conditions, 而其他房地产类型则以不同的步伐稳步走向成熟. Only retail is following a unique trajectory given changing consumer behavior and preferences and the impacts of e-commerce; market fundamentals have steadily improved during this cycle due to very limited construction, 但零售商的需求似乎非常不确定,这导致投资者在刀子继续下降的时候暂停投资.

For-Sale Housing

For-Sale Housing

For-sale housing markets are generally strong, though high land, labor, 在一些市场,权益成本正推动价格与收入增长脱节. As discussed in detail in Gregg Logan’s recent 外围滚球app365 Advisory article, “Impact of the Tax Bill on Real Estate,” the homeownership rate, 而在大萧条之后,更多的家庭选择租房而导致房价下降, has been slowly recovering. 然而,这一趋势可能会随着新法律的出台而停滞,因为拥有房产的税收优惠更低. In particular, builders of very high-end homes, and those in high-tax metro areas, 可能会受到抵押贷款利息扣除上限以及州和地方税收的负面影响, as luxury home buyers hesitate as they calculate the tax implications of moving up. This is consistent with opinions of sentiment survey respondents. 中等收入家庭的税收优惠在短期内将是温和的,而在长期内将是负的, 这与逐条扣除的不利因素相结合,可能会使一些家庭不再优先考虑买房,而是选择租房.

Rental Housing

Rental Housing

Rental supply has reached equilibrium in most markets, and exceeds it in some; we expect NOI growth—and asset pricing—to moderate. Consistent with sentiment survey respondents, 365滚球APP预计,新税法将在一定程度上对租赁住房产生适度的积极影响,使住房所有权不再是优先考虑的问题. In particular, 在新税法下,单一家庭租赁的房产——尤其是新兴的“建设型”租赁房产——似乎是赢家, as more households who want single-family homes may conclude that it makes more financial sense to rent rather than buy; we expect this to be one of the best market opportunities in the next few years. Even with the positive impacts of the new tax law, we anticipate that multifamily absorption, occupancy rates, 在新开发项目消化不良的市场,租金增速将继续放缓, and more markets may be joining the list of affected markets in 2018. Conversely, as sentiment survey participants responded, 低收入住房税收抵免(LIHTC)公寓可能会失去一些吸引力, adversely affecting affordable housing development.

Office

Office

New deliveries have been exceeding absorption, 因此,尽管就业持续增长,但365滚球APP预计大多数市场的表现将趋于平缓. Aggregated office market data, however, probably obfuscates trending bifurcation of the office supply into high-quality, highly desirable submarkets and buildings on the one hand, 另一方面,子市场和房产的结构正在逐渐退化. 那些依赖于缺乏技能的员工的企业,正在为人才展开激烈的竞争,并在动态的子市场推动对有吸引力的办公空间和布局的强劲需求. Older office stock in locations without amenities or convenient, preferably transit-oriented, access to where talented workers live are being left behind, 同时,随着许多“后台工作”和其他职位被自动化,他们也会感到额外的痛苦. 365滚球APP相信,这些趋势将持续下去,并将在未来几年推动办公室格局发生重大变化.

Retail

Retail

Very limited construction activity continues to benefit operating performance, 但某些零售类型和地点正在遭受“结构性淘汰”,” largely thanks to e-commerce. 社区和社区中心在这一周期中稳步复苏, but this may be slowing or reversing at this point. 房地产市场的基本面似乎已趋于稳定:新供应的持续不足支撑了现有中心的发展, 但是,一些新的供应和电子商务对这些中心越来越多的侵蚀相结合,正在抑制需求,或者限制租户的支付能力. Furthermore, 365滚球APP还没有看到电子商务对杂货店和药店的所有影响.

Industrial

Industrial

这是最健康的主要房地产行业,因为需求继续超过新供应的交付. However, the supply and demand gap has narrowed in many markets. In general, close-in distribution centers have the best market fundamentals, 如果没有积极的创新,这个市场可能无法提供足够的近距离分销空间, such as multistory industrial, 50’ clear heights, and repurposing retail. 亚马逊对无人机送货的探索含蓄地认识到,它可能无法在家庭附近获得足够的配送空间,以满足快速送货的需求.

Hotel

Hotel

Hotel operating performance continues to be strong, 即使供应充足,入住率也略低于峰值水平, and RevPAR remaining above peak levels. Employment growth should continue to be a primary driver of hotel demand, and emerging wage growth could give a boost to the leisure segment. However, 建筑活动的持续升温可能会开始影响一些市场和一些细分市场的运营,尤其是中高档市场. 投资者似乎对这种正在进行的建设活动感到不安,在酒店业务经历了漫长的上涨之后,他们急于撤资:上限价格继续扩大, while transaction volume has declined slightly Q-o-Q.

Capital Market Outlook

  • Equity: 寻求投资的资本数量继续超过现有的机会, 但逐渐缓和的经营基本面似乎正在中和资产价格的压力,筹资也放缓了. However, 新税法带来的税后利润增加是否会引发人们对房地产股权投资的更多兴趣,还有待观察.
  • Debt: 非银行贷款机构之间对收益的追求和竞争,使利率一直保持在低位(尽管联邦基金利率较高),并激发了更有创造性和更积极的贷款结构, 坊间证据显示,银行允许的贷款价值比达到了本轮周期的最高水平. As survey respondents predict, home and commercial mortgage interest rates are likely to increase, at least modestly, 部分原因是新税法的影响和通货膨胀率有所上升的相关迹象.
  • Cap Rates: 充裕的资本追逐全球有限的投资级房地产库存,已将上限利率推至较低水平, 365滚球APP预计,只要利率不大幅上升,利率就会保持在低位. Until then, these low cap rates represent the “new normal” because U.S. property is valued globally. Cap rates in the U.S. are higher than in European and Asian markets. We predict that this gap will narrow, so U.S. 除非美国经济出现严重低迷,否则利率不太可能大幅上调.S. economy, 或者由于这样或那样的原因,全球范围内的利率上限上调(极有可能大幅上调利率). Furthermore, 国债和上限利率(对于大多数产品类型来说)之间的差距目前相对较大, probably decreasing the impact of higher interest rates on cap rates.

Labor

Labor Costs and Inflation

As we reach full employment, 房地产业务各个方面(从建筑到维护和其他服务角色)的劳动力供应将变得越来越紧张, likely driving labor costs up and placing pressure on profitability, and creating inflationary pressures on the economy. Labor shortages will be further exacerbated by tightened immigration policies.

The Final Word

The conventional wisdom, a phrase that is often used as a prelude to contradict said wisdom, is that the recent acceleration of global economic growth, and the surging U.S. stock market, perhaps fueled further by the recent tax overhaul legislation, may indeed be “adding innings” to this economic and real estate market cycle. Or is it that we just can’t (yet?)想象一下任何短期内会拉低房地产价格的事情——泡沫在哪里? It is important to remember that expansions don’t die of old age, 因此,经济和房地产市场确实可能在2019年和2020年继续改善. However, it is equally important to recognize that the longer the expansion continues, and as volatility and uncertainty increases later in the cycle, 资产泡沫或其他一些意想不到的破坏性外生事件使当前的美国经济脱轨的可能性增加.S. positive growth trajectory.

As the expansionary phase of the cycle continues, 这是明智的,365滚球APP所有的房地产行业准备应急计划, revisit strategies for the late stable and early downturn phases of the cycle, and be prepared to react quickly to potential alternative outcomes.


Article and research prepared by Len Bogorad, Managing Director, and John Rendleman, Associate.

外围滚球app365’s mission is to help clients make strategic, effective, and enduring decisions about real estate. 365滚球APP自豪地庆祝50多年来为最优秀的房地产人才提供尖端分析, actionable advice, and the highest level of customer service. Our work includes market, economic, financial, and impact analyses; investment portfolio strategy and implementation; entity-level strategic planning; and management consulting.

免责声明:365滚球APP已作出合理努力,以确保本咨询中所载的数据反映准确和及时的信息, and the data is believed to be reliable and comprehensive. The Advisory is based on estimates, assumptions, 以及外围滚球app365根据其独立研究成果和对行业的一般了解开发的其他信息. 本咨询报告所载的意见代表了365滚球APP在这个特殊时期对合理期望的看法, 但365滚球APP的观点并不是作为预言或保证特定事件将会发生.

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