房地产税法案的影响

2017年12月22日
By 格雷格·洛根,总经理
政策的影响 房地产发展趋势

“减税和就业法案”(TCJA)已经通过, 将企业税率从35%降至21%, 以刺激经济增长为目标, 鼓励投资,并将目前存放在海外的资金带回国内以避税. 税法的变化对经济产生了广泛的影响, 对房地产有特殊规定. 这包括减少抵押贷款利息的所得税扣除额, 对家庭购买力的影响, 更优惠的待遇通过收入受益的收入物业业主, 以及联邦预算赤字的预期增长, 可能影响利率. There is also concern that the large reduction in the corporate tax rate will reduce the tax loss benefits of LIHTC investments, 可能会影响经济适用房的生产. 根据新税法,最大的房地产赢家似乎是收入型房产的所有者, 而在高税收城市和州拥有昂贵房屋的业主将失去一些福利.

From a consumer demand perspective it’s important to note that the TCJA will reduce taxes for most income groups in 2019, 税后收入增加, 尽管大约7%的人将面临增税. 短期内,减税预计将促进企业资本投资和工资增长, 刺激经济,提高GDP. 而该法案被宣传为给中产阶级的圣诞礼物, 它严重向高收入家庭和企业倾斜. By 2027, 在TCJA中的个别纳税人条款到期后, 近三分之一的纳税人将看到他们的税收增加1.

抵押贷款利息扣除

住房补贴嵌入税法,i.e. 按揭利息和州及地方财产税(SALT)的扣除, 是否有效降低了购房的税后成本, encouraging a “move-up” market sentiment among US households seeking bigger and better homes as they advance through various life stages. TCJA对抵押贷款利息扣除的限制(MID)和SALT扣除的上限, 与此同时,所有纳税人的标准扣除额也增加了一倍, 有效地降低了那些房地产相关扣除的价值, 这样就有了买房而不是租房的动机. 最终的法案规定MID的上限为75万美元,SALT的减免上限为1万美元. 并非所有的房主都拥有价值高到足以列出抵押贷款和财产税支出的房屋, 将标准扣除额增加一倍,将导致更少的家庭进行分项计算. 尽管如此, under these provisions the most expensive owner-occupied homes will now have less in the way of tax benefits. 而大多数人并不拥有价值超过750美元的房子,000, 这仍然代表着政策上的重大转变, 从历史上看,税法鼓励购房者购买更大、更昂贵的房子. 按揭利息扣除是房屋所有权价值的一部分, 它的减少有效地降低了房屋价值, 至少在价格区间的高端是这样. 目前住房库存紧张的事实可能有助于缓解这种影响.

The cap on the ability to deduct state and local property taxes may incentivize some Americans to leave high-cost markets for more affordable places, which could reduce the attractiveness of many cities where prices and rents take a bigger bite out of income. 标准扣除的加倍使得分项计算变得不那么重要, which may make renting equally attractive to many households no longer concerned with having a mortgage to write off their taxes.

对消费者购买力的影响

Besides making home ownership slightly less attractive for some by reducing tax benefits at the upper end of the housing market, the tax bill’s influence on the purchasing power of households also has implications for real estate demand. 短期内,大多数纳税人得到了减税, 尽管收入超过239美元的人获得了超过一半的税收变化,000:

收入范围的影响

上表显示了帐单中各种变化的净影响,即.e. 税率变化的综合影响, 标准扣除和儿童税收抵免的增加, 个人豁免的废除, 和10美元,州和地方税的扣除限额为000. 在短期内, 对收入低于112美元的家庭适度减税,000美元对提高他们的购买力不会起多大作用, 对于那些收入较高的人来说,减税力度更大, MID和SALT扣除的限制可能会降低他们对更昂贵的房子的胃口. 当然,MID和SALT可抵税并不是购买更昂贵的房子的唯一原因, 在旧金山和纽约这样的高成本市场,高端市场是住房市场. The short term effects of the tax cuts probably will not have a huge impact on housing demand except for the most expensive urban and coastal market areas. 长期, 因为法案中的个人纳税人条款将于2025年到期, 纳税人的平均收入低于150美元,000人的纳税义务将会增加, the overall effect of the TCJA will be to reduce purchasing power for low and moderate income households. 因为只有企业减税是永久性的, it will primarily be the very wealthiest American’s who own or have stock in those corporations who benefit long term.

虽然不是房地产本身的因素, experts expect the repeal of the individual mandate will cause premiums in the health insurance market place to increase by about 10%, 从纳税人的收入中拿走更多的钱, 减少用于其他购买的收入,如偿还抵押贷款或支付租金.

对经济和利率的潜在影响

房地产受益于长期处于历史低位的利率. Some economists express concern that the TCJA could lead to higher interest rates due to the anticipated economic boost to demand—particularly at a time when economic performance is already relatively robust—which could encourage the Federal Reserve to increase rates to keep inflation in check. 增加1美元.1 to $1.5 trillion to the federal budget deficit over the next 10 years could also lead to higher interest rates. The bill’s proponents insist that the reduction in corporate taxes will spur economic growth such that the actual growth of the deficit will be much less. 他们希望公司将税收节省用于设备投资和提高员工工资, 促进整体经济发展.

Several recent surveys suggest corporations have a broader range of ideas in mind for utilizing the tax savings. 例如, in November 2017 the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank asked executives what the likely impact of the TCJA would be on their capital investment and hiring plans. 只有8%的人认为该法案会增加招聘, 只有11%的企业表示会增加资本投资计划. It’s therefore just as likely they’ll return more to their shareholders than go on an investment spree or hiring binge. What makes corporations invest and hire is increases in demand resulting from increased discretionary spending, and in the short term the tax cuts are expected to result in moderate increases in demand for goods and services by modestly increasing incomes. 预计这将使GDP增长0.8% in 2018, 在随后的几年里,金额会更低, 部分抵消了削减开支造成的收入损失.

 

按收入范围划分的新税率

假设赤字像预期的那样增长, 削减联邦预算的提案, 特别是像医疗保险和医疗补助这样的项目, 可能会跟随, 最终影响了许多消费者的财务健康, 尤其是年长的家庭. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has already pointed out that unless Congress takes other specific action, 和解法案将导致自动削减资金, 其中250亿美元必须来自医疗保险. AARP has already gone on record that they are deeply concerned about the impacts of the TCJA on the health and financial security of older Americans. 这可能会影响独立生活需求的深度, 辅助生活, 积极的成人退休社区发展, 因为即使是富裕的美国人也要依靠这些项目来补充他们的医疗支出.

房地产通过收入传递

Two bright spots for income property owners are the TCJA’s more favorable treatment of “pass through” income and the fact that they will continue to be able to deduct interest payments on mortgages, 没有帽子. The change in the tax law will allow investors to take advantage of a 20% deduction on taxable income for pass through companies, making it more profitable for real estate investment trusts and limited liability corporations to own income property such as multifamily apartments and office buildings. 房地产投资信托基金的收入以前被视为普通收入,并以较高的税率征税,但现在更有价值. 对于通过其他类型的合伙企业和公司持有房产的投资者来说,情况也是如此. 然而, this pass through deduction may not apply to real estate developers because they are active in the business. Homebuilders and merchant-builders of income producing assets whose business practice isn’t to hold assets for at least 3 years after completion will likely not be able to benefit from deductions previously allowed. 房地产投资者是这一规定的主要受益者, 这也会影响待售房屋库存的可用性, 因为这也使得保留单户家庭租赁更具吸引力.

Summary

整体, 该法案对许多房地产公司的影响是积极的, 虽然对房地产市场的影响是不同的, 如上所述. 单一家庭租赁物业的机会, 特别是新兴的“建筑租赁”市场, 在新法律下,它似乎也是一个赢家, 考虑到对收入的征税方式的改变. 房地产投资信托基金(REITS)和其他收入型房产的所有者将从新法中受益, which could make the already robust multifamily apartment market even more attractive from an investment perspective. 进一步, 所有通过实体雇佣的房地产投资者都将受益于新的税收待遇.

的住宅自有率, 而在大萧条之后,更多的家庭选择租房而导致房价下降, 一直在慢慢恢复, 但是,由于新法律降低了买房的税收优惠,这一计划可能会停滞不前. 高端住宅的建造者, 特别是, 可能会受到MID和SALT上的盖子的负面影响, 豪华住宅的买家犹豫着,因为他们在计算上升的税收影响. 长期, 这取决于立法对联邦预算的影响, future impacts to entitlement programs could influence the purchasing power of the large retiring Boomer generation, 影响了面向退休的新住房需求. LIHTC可能会失去一些吸引力,影响经济适用房的开发. Tax benefits to low and moderate income households are modest in the short term and negative longer term, and that combined with the disincentives to itemize deductions may make homeownership less of a priority for some households who will instead choose to rent.


文章和研究准备 格雷格·洛根董事总经理.

参考文献

[1] 最终的特朗普-共和党税收法案:全国范围 & 50个州的分析; December 2017, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy

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